Will Ken Paxton Win the Texas GOP Senate Nomination? Ken Paxton Trading at 80%

Quick Pick

Buy YES on KXSENATETXR-26-KP at 80 cents. Paxton leads the polls, has absorbed $100 million in attacks without dropping below 80 cents, and the market already prices in a likely runoff path to the nomination.

The Setup

KXSENATETXR-26-KP asks whether Ken Paxton will be the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate seat in Texas. The market resolves YES if Paxton wins the GOP nomination, either outright on March 3 or through the May 26 runoff. With the most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history already underway, the stakes are high.

The Strategy

Paxton sits at 80.5 cents despite a historically hostile spending environment, with Cornyn and allied super PACs burning through nearly $100 million in attacks. The corroborating market KXSENATETXR-26-JC prices Cornyn’s nomination at just 18.5 cents, confirming Paxton’s dominance. Wesley Hunt’s market trades at 1 cent with zero YES shares, making this a true two-man race. Deep NO-side liquidity below 19 cents looks more like hedging than genuine conviction against Paxton.

The Payoff

Buy YES on KXSENATETXR-26-KP at or near 80 cents. The key catalyst is March 3 primary results: if Paxton finishes first, as polls project, runoff advancement becomes near-certain and YES prices should firm further.

Contract Notes

If Paxton fails to clear 50 percent on March 3, the nomination component does not resolve until after the May 26 runoff, extending your hold period by roughly 84 days.