Will Iran Close the Strait of Hormuz? Kalshi Contract at 25¢

Quick Pick

Buy YES on KXCLOSEHORMUZ-27JAN at 25.5 cents. Traffic is already down 80%, one threshold point away from triggering the contract.

The Setup

KXCLOSEHORMUZ-27JAN asks whether Iran will effectively close the Strait of Hormuz for seven or more days before January 2027. The waterway carries about 20 percent of the world’s daily oil and gas supply, including 20 to 21 million barrels of crude along with vast quantities of LNG. Iran’s attacks have already stranded approximately 150 ships around the strait.

The Strategy

At 25.5 cents, the market prices a roughly one-in-four chance of a qualifying closure. The bar is high — a 90% drop in the seven-day moving average of commercial transits versus 30 days prior — but Windward analyst Michelle Bockmann reports traffic is already down at least 80%. The nearer May 2026 contract trades at only 12.5 cents, suggesting the risk is concentrated in the second half of 2026 rather than imminent. The diplomatic wildcard: KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27 trades above 50 cents, meaning markets still favor a nuclear deal that could unwind the closure before it qualifies.

The Payoff

Buy KXCLOSEHORMUZ-27JAN near 25.5 cents. The contract settles quickly if IMF PortWatch confirms the 90% transit reduction threshold is crossed.

Contract Notes

Current traffic is down at least 80%, meeting the threshold that could qualify for YES resolution. The contract also excludes voluntary commercial rerouting, meaning confirmed Iranian-driven suppression must drive that final 10% drop.