[Whale Watch] $3K YES on US Strategic Petroleum Reserve Above 405 Million Barrels for April 1, 2026 at 81c (9:28:01 PM ET)

The Trade

Someone just bet $3,240 that the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve will hold above 405 million barrels as of April 1, 2026. That’s 4,000 contracts at 81 cents, meaning the buyer paid $3,240 total and implies roughly an 81% chance of YES. The buyer swept through multiple fills at 79, 80, and 81 cents to complete the trade.

📈 Predict it here on Kalshi →

The Price Impact

The market moved from 79 cents up to 81 cents as the buyer swept liquidity across five fills. After the trade, the market settled back with a bid of 78 cents and ask of 79 cents, so price drifted slightly below the execution price.

What This Market Is

This market asks whether the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve will exceed 405 million barrels on April 1, 2026, based on the Energy Department’s March 27 release. YES pays if reserves clear that threshold, NO pays if they don’t.

The Bottom Line

At 81 cents, this whale is betting the SPR rebuild stays firmly on track through early 2026.

This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.

---

Related Articles

• [Whale Watch] $8K NO on CPI Year-Over-Year Above 2.8% in Mar 2026 at 1c (8:59:47 PM ET)
• [Whale Watch] $20K NO on CPI Year-Over-Year Above 2.8% in Mar 2026 at 99c (4:39:14 PM ET)
• [Whale Watch] $3K YES on Zero Reconciliation Bills in 2026 at 71c (9:01:16 PM ET)