US-Iran Nuclear Deal Odds at 43¢ on Kalshi Amid Active War

QUICK PICK

Buy YES on KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26AUG at 27¢. The near-term contract implies just a 29% chance of a deal before August, and current conditions justify that skepticism.

📈 Predict it here on Kalshi →

THE SETUP

Kalshi’s full-year nuclear deal market (KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27) prices a US-Iran agreement at 43.5¢ by end of 2027. The near-term August contract sits at 29¢. Both markets are tracking active US military strikes against Iran under Operation Epic Fury, now in its tenth day.

THE STRATEGY

Iran’s foreign minister publicly stated that talks are “no longer on the agenda,” citing a “very bitter experience” of being attacked while negotiating. Trump’s own signals are contradictory — calling objectives “pretty well complete” while simultaneously threatening “death, fire and fury.” The April contract (KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26APR) prices in only 7.5¢, with 131,333 YES shares and 93,535 NO shares confirming near-zero near-term deal expectations.

THE PAYOFF

The August YES at 27¢ pays out if a deal is signed before August 26 — an unlikely scenario given Iran’s posture and ongoing strikes. The key catalyst to watch: any formal back-channel communication contradicting the foreign minister’s public statement.

CONTRACT NOTES

Resolution requires Iran to have “agreed to, signed, or accepted” a deal — Trump’s Truth Social post demanding “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” raises questions about what qualifies, adding resolution risk to YES holders.