[Whale Watch] $12K NO on US-Iran Nuclear Deal? at 99c (10:03:48 AM ET)

Someone just bet against a US-Iran nuclear deal this year, placing $12,317 NO on the “Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?” market at 99c. 12,441 NO contracts at 99c each totaled $12,316.59. The trade registered zero immediate price impact and zero net slippage. The market currently sits at a last-traded price of 1c YES, implying roughly a 1% probability of a deal before May 1, 2026. Across the last 200 trades spanning 14.5 hours, NO volume totals $33,123 versus $1,786 YES, with price sliding from 17c to 3c.

📈 Predict it here on Kalshi →

---

About Whale Watch
Instead of monitoring Kalshi yourself, we do it for you. News2Bet tracks every trade on the Kalshi prediction market exchange in real time and flags the biggest ones. We then write them up clearly so you can see exactly what happened: what was bet, at what price, and whether it moved the market.

What counts as a big trade? For sports and crypto markets, we report single trades of $25,000+. For parlay and combo bets, the threshold is $5,000+. For everything else — politics, culture, economy — it’s $5,000+. That’s it. No opinions, no predictions — just the trade, the data, and the market’s reaction.

This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.

---

Related Articles

• [Whale Watch] $20K NO on Will Jon Stewart be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? at 99c (7:04:25 PM ET)
• [Whale Watch] $40K NO on Will Lebron James Be the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2028? at 100c (6:19:44 PM ET)
• [Whale Watch] $10K NO on Will Jasmine Crockett Be the 2028 Democratic Nominee? at 100c (6:17:27 PM ET)