How prediction markets are pricing Trump’s tariffs, the Supreme Court showdown, the Fed chair fight, immigration enforcement, Greenland, and government shutdowns—and what $200 million in wagers tells you about the second term.
What Are Trump Policy Prediction Markets?
Trump policy prediction markets are contracts that pay out based on whether specific second-term policy outcomes actually materialize. These markets cover an enormous range of questions: will the Supreme Court uphold the president’s tariffs, who will Trump nominate as the next Fed chair, will the U.S. acquire part of Greenland, how many deportations will happen in 2026, and will the government shut down again.
These markets live primarily on two platforms. Polymarket is a crypto-based prediction platform that now hosts 279 active Trump-related markets with over $606 million in cumulative trading volume. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange that lists similar policy markets settled in U.S. dollars.
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn’t. The price in cents functions as the market’s implied probability—a contract trading at 28¢ means traders collectively see about a 28% chance of that outcome occurring.
The scale of this activity has exploded since the original version of this article was published in December 2025. A Washington Post investigation in late January 2026 reported that more than $200 million is now staked on political or government action markets across Polymarket and Kalshi, raising significant concerns about insider trading by officials with advance knowledge of policy decisions.
All odds below reflect a snapshot as of mid-February 2026 and change constantly.
1. Tariffs and the Supreme Court: The Biggest Market of the Year
The Trump tariff case before the Supreme Court—V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump—has become one of the most closely watched prediction markets of 2026, with over $9 million wagered across platforms.
What’s at stake: The Federal Circuit ruled in August 2025 that Trump’s sweeping tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) exceeded presidential authority. The administration appealed to the Supreme Court. Total tariff revenue reached $215.2 billion in fiscal year 2025, and the legal outcome will determine whether hundreds of billions in future collections—and potentially refunds—are on the table.
Where the odds stand: Kalshi traders put the chance of the Court ruling in Trump’s favor at roughly 28–30%. Polymarket shows approximately 25–28%. This means markets see about a 72% probability that the tariffs will be struck down or significantly curtailed.
The odds have moved substantially since December 2025. They peaked near the low 40s in September 2025, then dropped sharply—falling roughly 20 points on Kalshi—after oral arguments in November where Justices Barrett, Roberts, and Gorsuch all signaled skepticism of the administration’s IEEPA authority. They hit a low near 20% in early November before bouncing to their current range after Trump imposed new tariffs on Europe over the Greenland dispute in January 2026, which briefly reset expectations.
Kalshi also runs a vote-count market. The current favorite is 3 justices voting to uphold the tariffs (priced at 35¢), while 5 justices trades at 18%. A timing market shows 62% odds of a ruling before March 1 and 83% before April, with the Court having scheduled opinion days for February 20, 24, and 25.
What’s priced in: Markets are signaling that Trump is unlikely to get a clean Supreme Court win on his emergency tariff authority. The base case is a legal defeat that constrains—but may not entirely eliminate—the president’s ability to impose unilateral trade barriers. Retailers like Home Depot and Costco have already rallied in anticipation, outperforming the S&P 500 in early 2026.
Blanket tariff rollback: Markets continue to price near-zero odds of a voluntary rollback of existing tariffs. However, the new European tariffs tied to the Greenland dispute show that the administration is willing to escalate trade conflicts even while the Court deliberates, adding uncertainty about what the tariff landscape looks like post-ruling.
2. The Fed Chair: Kevin Warsh at 94%
One of the largest single prediction markets anywhere is the question of who Trump will nominate as the next Federal Reserve chair. Polymarket’s “Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?” market has attracted a staggering $490 million in trading volume—more than 30 times the volume on the tariff case.
Kevin Warsh, the former Fed governor, is the overwhelming favorite at 94%, reflecting near-consensus that Trump has settled on his pick. The market for the March Fed decision shows 93% odds of no change to interest rates, suggesting traders expect the current rate environment to hold steady through the leadership transition.
A related market asks when Jerome Powell will depart as chair, with traders tracking whether Trump will push Powell out before his term expires in 2026 or allow an orderly transition.
What’s priced in: The market treats the Warsh nomination as essentially locked in. The more interesting question is what it means for monetary policy—Warsh has historically been more hawkish than Powell, and the prospect of a Warsh-led Fed is already being factored into bond market pricing.
3. Immigration and Deportations: Aggressive Enforcement Priced In
Immigration remains one of the most active clusters of Trump policy prediction markets, and the real-world situation has escalated significantly since December 2025.
Polymarket and Kalshi both list deportation-count markets resolved against official ICE removal statistics. The 2025 markets showed traders largely expected historically high deportation totals, and reporting through early 2026 has confirmed that trajectory, with enforcement operations ramping up across major U.S. cities.
The political environment has intensified. ICE operations in Minneapolis—part of what was called “Operation Metro Surge”—resulted in the fatal shooting of a local resident in late January 2026, triggering fierce backlash from Democratic lawmakers. Senate Democrats pledged to block government funding unless accountability reforms were implemented for ICE and Border Patrol, directly connecting immigration enforcement to the government shutdown dynamics.
Prediction markets on deportation totals, enforcement timelines, and related political fallout have become intertwined with government shutdown markets and 2026 midterm odds, as traders recognize that immigration enforcement is now both a policy question and a political one with cascading consequences.
What’s priced in: Traders continue to expect historically aggressive enforcement—well above prior administration baselines—but are now also pricing the political cost, including its contribution to shutdown risk and its potential impact on the 2026 midterms.
4. Foreign Policy: Greenland, Ukraine, and NATO
Trump’s second-term foreign policy has generated its own ecosystem of prediction markets, with several questions that barely existed when this article was first written.
Greenland has become a major new market. Polymarket lists “Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?” and even “Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?”—reflecting the administration’s aggressive push to gain control of the territory, which escalated into new European tariffs in January 2026 when European nations resisted.
Ukraine remains actively traded. Polymarket lists “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?” and related timing markets. Trump’s early promise to end the war quickly resolved as a clear NO, and traders now expect a drawn-out diplomatic process rather than a rapid grand bargain.
NATO withdrawal markets continue to trade at very low odds for a full exit, consistent with the pattern from 2025. However, markets on reduced U.S. contributions or conditional support carry more meaningful probabilities.
What’s priced in: Markets don’t buy the most dramatic foreign policy scenarios. They price in continued pressure on allies, messy diplomacy, and occasional escalatory moves (like the Greenland tariffs), but not permanent ruptures with core alliances.
5. Government Shutdowns: A Recurring Market
Government shutdown prediction markets have become one of the most actively traded policy categories, reflecting the recurring brinkmanship in Congress.
The January 2026 shutdown market on Polymarket hit 78% probability before the funding deadline, driven by the DHS budget fight and Democratic opposition to ICE funding. Kalshi’s shutdown markets became one of its most popular political offerings, with traders using the platform to bet on both whether a shutdown would occur and how long it would last.
Separate markets now track whether the GOP will use the “nuclear option” to break filibuster rules (priced at 30% by end of 2026 on Polymarket), adding another layer of legislative process betting.
What’s priced in: Traders treat government shutdowns as a recurring feature of divided government, not an aberration. Markets on shutdown duration and political consequences are now traded with the same sophistication as election odds.
6. Insider Trading Concerns and the $200 Million Question
The rapid growth of Trump policy prediction markets has brought a serious new concern into focus: insider trading by people with advance knowledge of government decisions.
The Washington Post reported in January 2026 that more than $200 million is staked on political or government action markets across Polymarket and Kalshi. The most dramatic example came from the Venezuela operation—one Polymarket user placed a trade hours before any public announcement of the Maduro capture and netted $436,000.
This has prompted legislative action. Representative Ritchie Torres introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, which would ban federal employees and elected officials from trading on political outcomes they could influence. Polymarket’s U.S. compliance team has begun aggressively monitoring for suspicious trading patterns, and accounts flagged for potential non-public information usage risk immediate fund freezes.
The concern is particularly acute for policy markets—where the people making the decisions (executive branch officials, Congressional staffers, agency heads) could theoretically trade on outcomes they control—versus sports or weather markets, where insider advantage is harder to come by.
7. How to Read What’s Priced In (Without Losing Your Shirt)
A few principles for interpreting Trump policy prediction markets:
Price equals crowd probability, not destiny. A 28% chance that the Supreme Court upholds tariffs means roughly one-in-four scenarios end that way. That’s not impossible—it’s just not the base case.
Watch clusters of related markets. For tariffs, look at the SCOTUS outcome, vote-count market, timing market, and sector-specific tariff markets together. For immigration, look at deportation counts alongside government shutdown odds and midterm predictions. The most useful signal comes from the full picture.
Track moves around catalysts. The 20-point drop in tariff odds after oral arguments was a high-information event. So was the bounce after the Greenland tariffs. Static numbers on quiet days tell you less.
Be aware of insider trading risk. Unlike election or sports markets, policy markets are uniquely vulnerable to people with non-public knowledge. Suspicious price moves ahead of announcements should make you cautious, not excited.
Remember the regulatory and ethical debates. Some states treat certain prediction markets as illegal gambling. Markets on deportations, wars, and government actions raise real questions about whether financial incentives around human suffering are appropriate. And the Trump administration’s own financial ties to these platforms (Donald Trump Jr. is a strategic advisor for Kalshi and an investor in Polymarket) add an additional layer of complexity.
None of this is investment, trading, or legal advice. These markets are volatile, jurisdiction-dependent, and risky. Never stake money you can’t afford to lose.
The Bottom Line: What’s Priced In as of February 2026
Trump policy prediction markets now represent hundreds of millions of dollars in active wagers across nearly 300 markets. Here’s the consensus picture:
Tariffs are headed for a likely Supreme Court defeat (roughly 72% probability), with a ruling expected before April. Markets see the tariffs as sticky in the meantime but legally vulnerable, with new trade escalations (like the Greenland-related European tariffs) adding uncertainty about the post-ruling landscape.
The Fed chair nomination is essentially settled at Kevin Warsh (94%), with the monetary policy implications still being priced by bond markets.
Immigration enforcement continues at historically aggressive levels, but the political fallout—including ICE-related shootings and their impact on government funding fights—is now being priced as a connected risk across multiple market types.
Foreign policy scenarios remain moderate: no NATO exit, no instant peace deal, but active Greenland pressure and drawn-out Ukraine diplomacy.
Government shutdowns are treated as a recurring feature of the political landscape, not a crisis event.
And across all of these markets, the explosive growth in volume has brought legitimate concerns about insider trading by government officials—a problem that may ultimately require legislation or judicial action to resolve.
These markets aren’t crystal balls. But they are the most comprehensive, real-time, incentive-driven snapshot available of what thousands of traders—with real money on the line—think Trump’s second-term policy reality will look like.
This is not investment, trading, or legal advice. Odds are illustrative and change constantly. Always check your local laws before participating in any prediction market.
