Iran Nuclear Deal Odds on Kalshi as Ceasefire Clock Ticks
US-Iran ceasefire expires April 22. Kalshi traders price a nuclear deal before September at 60%.
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Kalshi Traders Doubt Trump’s Iran Timeline for Strait of Hormuz
Kalshi traders give less than 50% odds the Strait of Hormuz reopens by June as Trump and Iran clash over war timelines.
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Kalshi Bettors Doubt a US-Iran Nuclear Deal Anytime Soon
Kalshi bettors give a US-Iran nuclear deal before May just a 10% chance as Trump addresses the nation Wednesday night.
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Oil Prices Surge Past $100 — Kalshi Markets Price Extreme Spikes
Iran’s Hormuz closure sent oil past $100. Kalshi traders are pricing real odds of $160 or $200 WTI.
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Kalshi Bets on a US-Iran Nuclear Deal Stay Low as Talks Stall
Iran rejected US ceasefire terms as talks stall. Kalshi’s deal contracts imply single-digit odds before May.
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Kalshi Traders Bet Strait of Hormuz Stays Nearly Shut
Kalshi markets price near-zero odds of normal Hormuz shipping as Trump’s April 6 deadline looms.
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Odds Shift as Zelenskyy Faces Saudi, EU, and US Aid Hurdles
Ukraine faces a defense funding crisis from three directions. Kalshi puts just 4% odds on Zelenskyy leaving before July.
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Kalshi Odds Shift as Iran Reopens Hormuz to Oil Tankers
Iran rejected talks on March 26, pushing WTI to $94. Kalshi now prices a 43% chance oil hits $98 before March 30 ends.
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Prediction Market Odds Shift as Trump Extends Iran Pause
Kalshi traders put just 15% odds on a US-Iran deal before May as Trump extends his military pause to April 6.
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Anthropic Wins Injunction vs. DOD — Prediction Market Odds Shift
A federal judge ruled the DOD retaliated illegally against Anthropic. Kalshi traders put the odds of Anthropic winning at trial at roughly 86%.
