[Whale Watch] $5K YES on S&P 500 at 6,435 or Above at 25c (10:44:33 AM ET)

Someone just bet $5,000 that the S&P 500 will finish at 6,435 or above on March 31, 2026 at 11am EDT. The trade placed 20,000 YES contracts at 25 cents each, totaling $5,000. The entry at 25c is notably below the current ask of 45c, suggesting this order was filled against existing liquidity — though with no resting orders reported, the price impact was significant, moving net +24c. The last traded price now sits at 45c, implying roughly a 45% probability. Across the last 52 trades spanning 40 minutes, YES volume dominates at $5,476 vs. $239 NO, with price sliding from 67c to 45c.

📈 Predict it here on Kalshi →

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About Whale Watch
Instead of monitoring Kalshi yourself, we do it for you. News2Bet tracks every trade on the Kalshi prediction market exchange in real time and flags the biggest ones. We then write them up clearly so you can see exactly what happened: what was bet, at what price, and whether it moved the market.

What counts as a big trade? For sports and crypto markets, we report single trades of $25,000+. For parlay and combo bets, the threshold is $8,000+. For everything else — politics, culture, economy — it’s $5,000+. That’s it. No opinions, no predictions — just the trade, the data, and the market’s reaction.

This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.

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