POLITICS
Politics
Daily tracker analysis, election breakdowns, and policy trading strategies — the context behind the odds.
- Iran Nuclear Deal Odds on Kalshi as Ceasefire Clock Ticks
US-Iran ceasefire expires April 22. Kalshi traders price a nuclear deal before September at 60%. - [Whale Watch] $14K YES on Government Shutdown At Least 55 Days at 96c (9:40:01 AM ET)
![Prediction market illustration for [Whale Watch] $14K YES on Government Shutdown At Least 55 Days at 96c (9:40:01 AM ET)](https://news2bet.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/government-shutdown-55-days-kalshi-prediction-market-300x164.jpg "[Whale Watch] $14K YES on Government Shutdown At Least 55 Days at 96c (9:40:01 AM ET)")
Government shutdown “At least 55 days” market holds at 96c after a $14,400 YES whale trade of 15,000 contracts on Kalshi. - Anthropic Code Leak Shakes IPO Race — Kalshi Market Holds
Anthropic’s double code leak rattles enterprise trust, but Kalshi bettors still favor it to IPO before OpenAI. - Trump’s Voter List Order Sparks State Revolts on Kalshi
Trump’s new voter-list order triggers multistate lawsuits. Kalshi’s Electoral Compact contract sits near 7 cents. - Kalshi Traders Doubt Trump’s Iran Timeline for Strait of Hormuz
Kalshi traders give less than 50% odds the Strait of Hormuz reopens by June as Trump and Iran clash over war timelines. - Kalshi Bettors Doubt a US-Iran Nuclear Deal Anytime SoonKalshi bettors give a US-Iran nuclear deal before May just a 10% chance as Trump addresses the nation Wednesday night.
- [Whale Watch] $44K YES on Democrats Win the House (Democratic Party) at 87c (11:40:21 AM ET)Democrats win the House market holds at 87c after a $44K YES whale bet on the Democratic Party outcome across 50,269 contracts.
- [Whale Watch] $7K NO on Jon Ossoff 2028 Presidential Market at 96c (11:34:18 AM ET)
![Prediction market illustration for [Whale Watch] $7K NO on Jon Ossoff 2028 Presidential Market at 96c (11:34:18 AM ET)](https://news2bet.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/jon-ossoff-2028-presidential-kalshi-prediction-market-300x164.jpg "[Whale Watch] $7K NO on Jon Ossoff 2028 Presidential Market at 96c (11:34:18 AM ET)")
Jon Ossoff’s 2028 presidential odds hold near 4% as a $6,734 NO bet — 7,000 contracts at 96c — lands with zero price impact on Kalshi.