What Do Oscar Prediction Market Odds Actually Measure?
When people talk about Oscar odds in 2026, they’re increasingly referencing prediction markets rather than traditional bookmakers or critics’ polls.
On platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and aggregators like Oddpool and PredictionHunt, traders buy and sell contracts tied to specific Academy Awards outcomes. Each contract pays $1 if the prediction is correct and $0 if it isn’t. The price in cents functions as the market’s implied probability—a contract trading at 74¢ means traders collectively see about a 74% chance of that outcome.
The scale of Oscar trading has grown dramatically. Over $9.5 million has been wagered on Kalshi’s 2026 Oscars markets alone, with an additional $1.2 million traded on the Best Actress race and $1.1 million on Best Cinematography. Polymarket, Kalshi, and aggregator sites now cover every major category—Best Picture, Best Director, all four acting categories, screenplay, cinematography, and technical awards—making the 98th Academy Awards one of the most heavily traded entertainment events in prediction market history.
The 98th Oscars ceremony takes place on Sunday, March 15, 2026, at 7 PM ET at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, hosted by Conan O’Brien and broadcast on ABC. Final Oscar voting runs from February 26 through March 5.
All odds below reflect mid-February 2026 and will continue to shift as BAFTA results (February 22), PGA Awards, and final voting unfold.
Best Picture: One Battle After Another vs. the Record-Breaking Sinners
The Best Picture race has crystallized into one dominant front-runner and a historic challenger.
One Battle After Another — 74% on Kalshi
Paul Thomas Anderson’s dark comedy about ex-revolutionaries, starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Benicio del Toro, has swept the awards circuit. It won Best Picture and Best Director at both the Critics’ Choice Awards and the Golden Globes. Anderson took the Directors Guild of America Award on February 7—a prize that has predicted the eventual Best Director Oscar winner 18 out of 20 times in the last two decades. The Warner Bros. film earned 13 Oscar nominations and was the highest-rated film of 2025 on Metacritic, as well as Anderson’s biggest box office hit by a wide margin.
Sinners — 15% on Kalshi
Ryan Coogler’s horror-musical about vampires in 1932 Mississippi earned a record-breaking 16 nominations, surpassing the mark previously shared by All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land. The film starred Michael B. Jordan and drew the loudest applause at the Oscar nominees’ luncheon—an unmistakable sign of industry enthusiasm. Sinners is projected to win more total Oscars than OBAA (experts predict 6 wins vs. 5), especially in below-the-line categories like Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Casting, and Score. But no major precursor award has pointed to it winning Best Picture.
Immediately after the nominations were announced, Sinners surged to nearly 25% on Kalshi while OBAA dropped to 66%. Since then, the market has corrected: OBAA climbed back to 74% and Sinners retreated to 15%.
The rest of the field: Hamnet (Chloé Zhao, starring Jessie Buckley, produced by Steven Spielberg) trades at about 7%. Marty Supreme (Josh Safdie, Timothée Chalamet) sits around 2%, and Frankenstein (Guillermo del Toro), Sentimental Value (Joachim Trier), Bugonia (Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone), and Train Dreams round out the slate.
What’s priced in: Markets see this as OBAA’s race to lose. The DGA-to-Oscar pipeline is the strongest data point. The real question is whether Sinners’ record nomination count and broad enthusiasm across Academy branches can create an upset—something that the 15% odds imply is possible but unlikely.
Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson’s Moment
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) — ~75% on Kalshi
After 11 previous Oscar nominations without a single win, Anderson appears destined to finally take home the statuette. He won the DGA Award, the Critics’ Choice, and the Golden Globe for Best Director. Five consecutive DGA winners have gone on to win the Oscar. No other nominee has a greater than 9% chance on prediction markets.
Ryan Coogler (Sinners) — ~9%
Coogler’s odds surged more than 10% after the record 16 nominations were announced but have since pulled back by 7 points. He remains the only realistic alternative.
The field also includes Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet).
What’s priced in: This is priced as one of the safest categories of the night. Anderson winning Best Director without winning Best Picture would be unusual but not unprecedented.
Best Actor: Chalamet vs. DiCaprio—Again
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) — 71% on Kalshi, 72% on Polymarket
At 30 years old, Chalamet has picked up his third Best Actor nomination (after Call Me by Your Name and A Complete Unknown). He won the Golden Globe, which gives him a clear statistical edge heading into Oscar night. His portrayal of an eccentric ping-pong prodigy in Josh Safdie’s film is A24’s biggest investment to date, and the film has been a commercial hit.
Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) — 14%
DiCaprio is seeking his second Oscar after winning for The Revenant. He plays a washed-up revolutionary in Anderson’s film. Despite the film’s dominance in other categories, the acting race has tilted decisively toward Chalamet.
Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) — ~4%
Moura is the dark horse that deserves attention. He won Best Actor at the Golden Globes (Drama category), took home the Cannes Film Festival’s acting prize, and has won nine total awards for his performance. Prediction markets price him at just 3–4%, significantly lower than sportsbooks (which offer him at +1200 or better), creating one of the biggest disagreements between prediction markets and traditional odds. The gap appears to be driven by name recognition—Chalamet and DiCaprio attract more casual bettors.
Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) — ~8%
Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) — lower single digits
What’s priced in: Chalamet is a heavy favorite, but the Moura discrepancy between prediction markets and sportsbooks is one of the most interesting pricing anomalies across the entire Oscar slate.
Best Actress: Jessie Buckley as the Biggest Lock of the Night
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) — 89% on Kalshi
Buckley is the biggest favorite of Oscar night across all categories. She plays Agnes Hathaway, William Shakespeare’s wife, in Chloé Zhao’s adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s novel—delivering what critics have called a devastating performance of grief after the death of their 11-year-old son (whose death inspired Hamlet). Buckley swept the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice for Best Actress, won Berlin’s Silver Bear earlier in her career, and has dominated the precursor circuit.
Over $1.2 million has been traded on this race on Kalshi alone. Her odds were near 90% even before nominations were announced and have barely budged.
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) — ~7%
Byrne’s A24 psychological thriller briefly generated upset buzz after a surprising Golden Globe win, but the market has firmly moved against her.
The field: Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), and Emma Stone (Bugonia) round out the nominees.
What’s priced in: Barring a historic surprise, this race is over.
Best Supporting Actor: Skarsgård vs. the Field
Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) — front-runner
Skarsgård is the projected winner in Joachim Trier’s Cannes Grand Prix-winning film. Sentimental Value received nine nominations and is favored in two categories, with Supporting Actor being its strongest opportunity.
Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) — the surging challenger
Elordi has drawn an overwhelming audience response to his work in Guillermo del Toro’s Netflix remake, and his stock has been climbing. Analysts note he offers real value at current odds.
Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another)
Del Toro drew a spontaneous and sustained reaction at the nominees’ luncheon. If OBAA runs the table, a del Toro win becomes more plausible.
Delroy Lindo (Sinners) rounds out the major contenders.
What’s priced in: This is one of the night’s genuine toss-up categories, with the most competitive odds board of any major race.
Best Supporting Actress: Taylor Leads, but Madigan Lurks
Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) — ~65% implied probability
Taylor has long led this race and her position is strengthened if OBAA performs well across the board. She won at the National Board of Review.
Amy Madigan (Weapons) — ~30%
Madigan won the Critics’ Choice Award for Best Supporting Actress, but Weapons received only one Oscar nomination (this one), which could cut both ways: voters may want to reward the performance, or the film’s weak overall showing could limit momentum. Notably, past solo-nomination winners include Angelina Jolie (Girl, Interrupted) and Penélope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona).
What’s priced in: Taylor is the favorite but this race has real uncertainty, particularly if voters use Supporting Actress as their chance to reward a performance the rest of the slate didn’t acknowledge.
Below-the-Line Races: Sinners’ Strength
While One Battle After Another leads the top categories, Sinners is projected to dominate below-the-line awards. Expert projections from Gold Derby, IndieWire, and Variety have Sinners winning up to six Oscars across categories including:
Best Original Screenplay (Ryan Coogler), Best Cinematography (Autumn Durald Arkapaw, who made history as the first woman of color nominated in this category), Best Original Score (Ludwig Göransson), and Best Casting. Kodak created a custom 65mm Ektachrome film stock specifically for the film, and the cinematography features alternating IMAX and Ultra Panavision aspect ratios.
Frankenstein is projected for three wins: Best Costume Design, Best Makeup & Hairstyling, and Best Production Design.
The cinematography race is particularly tight: Arkapaw leads at 46% on Kalshi, with Michael Bauman (One Battle After Another) surging to 41% after winning the British Society of Cinematographers Award. The ASC Awards on March 8—a week before the Oscars—will be the final data point.
Where Do Oscar Prediction Odds Come From?
Kalshi
Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, runs the deepest Oscar prediction markets in the United States. With over $9.5 million in total Oscar trading volume, Kalshi lists markets across every major category—Best Picture, Best Director, all four acting races, screenplay, cinematography, and more. Contracts are fully collateralized yes/no trades between $0.01 and $0.99, settled through Kalshi’s clearinghouse. These are available through Kalshi’s app, through Robinhood, and through Coinbase.
Polymarket
Polymarket hosts comprehensive Oscars markets covering Best Picture (winner and nominations), Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Supporting categories, and more. The platform’s Best Picture market resolution rules specify that outcomes are determined by official AMPAS information from the Oscars site and live broadcast. Polymarket’s interface allows traders to track real-time odds and historical price movements across the full awards season.
Aggregators
Sites like Oddpool and PredictionHunt pull data from multiple exchanges and compute combined implied probabilities, offering side-by-side comparisons of Kalshi and Polymarket odds for each category. These dashboards highlight pricing disagreements between platforms—which can signal where the “smart money” diverges from casual traders.
Are Oscar Prediction Markets Actually Good Forecasters?
There’s strong evidence they are—particularly when the precursor award pipeline aligns.
For the 97th Oscars in 2025, prediction markets had Anora as a strong Best Picture favorite at 60–65%, and it won. Adrien Brody was priced at essentially 100% for Best Actor (The Brutalist), Kieran Culkin at 100% for Best Supporting Actor (A Real Pain), and No Other Land at 100% for Best Documentary Feature. All three matched their market-predicted outcomes exactly.
More broadly, research on prediction markets shows that when there’s sufficient liquidity, market-based odds can rival or beat traditional experts and polls. Oscar markets aggregate an enormous amount of information: precursor awards (DGA, SAG, Critics’ Choice, BAFTAs, Golden Globes), critic scores, festival buzz, box office and streaming numbers, online sentiment, and industry insider knowledge.
The DGA-to-Oscar pipeline is particularly powerful. Over the last 20 years, the DGA winner has predicted the Best Director Oscar 18 out of 20 times. Paul Thomas Anderson’s DGA win is the single strongest signal in this year’s races.
That said, markets still miss sometimes. Surprise wins happen. The loudest applause at the nominees’ luncheon doesn’t always translate to the most votes. And “category fraud”—where a studio pushes a lead performance into a supporting category—can create unexpected dynamics.
How to Read Oscar Odds Without Getting Lost
Think in probabilities, not guarantees. OBAA at 74% means about three-in-four scenarios end with it winning. That’s a strong favorite—but it also means roughly one-in-four scenarios produce an upset.
Look at the whole board. For Best Picture, the gap between OBAA (74%) and Sinners (15%) is enormous but not insurmountable. Compare that to Best Actress, where Buckley’s 89% makes the race functionally over. The competitive distance tells you which categories have real drama.
Watch how odds move around catalysts. Sinners’ record 16 nominations created a sharp market reaction—the film surged from single digits to nearly 25% in hours before settling back to 15%. BAFTA results on February 22 and the PGA Awards will be the next major catalysts. If Sinners wins BAFTA Best Film, watch for another surge.
Track the prediction market vs. sportsbook divergence. Wagner Moura’s Best Actor odds—3% on Kalshi vs. +1200 at sportsbooks—is the clearest example of where the two types of markets disagree. Prediction market odds reflect the collective views of active traders, while sportsbook odds also factor in liability management. When they diverge significantly, one of them is wrong.
Mind legality and risk. Kalshi’s Oscar contracts are CFTC-regulated derivatives. Polymarket operates globally and is expanding its regulated U.S. presence. Access varies by state—Kalshi is currently unavailable in Illinois, Maryland, Montana, New Jersey, and Ohio. None of this is betting or investment advice.
The Bottom Line: What Oscar Markets Are Pricing on the Eve of Voting
With final voting running from February 26 to March 5, here is the consensus snapshot from prediction markets:
Best Picture: One Battle After Another at 74%. Sinners at 15%. Hamnet at 7%. Everything else in low single digits.
Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson at ~75%. His DGA win makes this the safest bet of the night alongside Best Actress.
Best Actor: Timothée Chalamet at 71–72%. Leonardo DiCaprio at 14%. Wagner Moura is the value play at 3–4% if you trust the precursor awards over the prediction market price.
Best Actress: Jessie Buckley at 89%. The biggest lock of the ceremony.
Best Supporting Actor: The most competitive major category, with Stellan Skarsgård, Jacob Elordi, Benicio del Toro, and Delroy Lindo all in the mix.
Best Supporting Actress: Teyana Taylor favored at ~65%, with Amy Madigan as the main threat.
Below the line: Sinners projected for the most total Oscars (up to 6), with particular strength in Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Score, and Casting.
These markets aren’t crystal balls—but with nearly $10 million traded and the most sophisticated crowd-sourced odds available, they represent the best real-time signal of what the industry expects when the envelopes are opened on March 15.
This is not investment, trading, or legal advice. Odds change constantly. Check your local laws before participating in any prediction market.
