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Meta’s $10B Texas Data Center Fuels Kalshi Nuclear Base Market

ByNews2Bet Staff March 27, 2026

– Meta increased its El Paso data center investment from $1.5 billion to $10 billion, targeting 1 gigawatt of capacity by 2028.

– The Kalshi KXDATACENTER-30 contract last traded at 58 cents, giving roughly a 58% chance the U.S. breaks ground on a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030.

– The contract closes January 1, 2030, so watch for federal announcements on military nuclear energy deals in the next 12 months.

Predict it here on Kalshi

What Happened

Meta has dramatically scaled up its ambitions in West Texas, boosting its planned El Paso data center investment from $1.5 billion to $10 billion — a more than sixfold increase. The facility spans 1.2 million square feet, targets 1 gigawatt of capacity at its 2028 opening, and will support roughly 4,000 construction jobs at peak. Meta also committed to adding over 5,000 megawatts of clean power to the grid.

The Market

The KXDATACENTER-30 contract last traded at 58 cents, implying roughly a 58% chance the U.S. starts building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before January 1, 2030. Meta’s El Paso facility doesn’t qualify — it’s a commercial site, not a military base, and isn’t nuclear-powered. The bid sits at 52 cents and the ask at 58 cents, a six-cent spread reflecting a thin, lightly traded market, with the bid-ask midpoint of roughly 55 cents serving as the more balanced implied probability estimate. Treat that 58% as a rough signal, not a precise one.

What to Watch

The contract resolves on January 1, 2030, but any Pentagon or Department of Energy announcement awarding a construction contract for a nuclear-powered facility on a military base would move this market sharply. Meta’s news keeps the broader data center buildout in the headlines, which could nudge more traders into this contract and tighten that spread over time.

This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.

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