Kalshi Bettors Doubt a US-Iran Nuclear Deal Anytime Soon

– Trump says he could end the Iran conflict in weeks, but Iran has rejected Washington’s 15-point plan as unrealistic.

– Kalshi’s “deal before May” contract trades around 10 cents, giving a nuclear agreement roughly a 10% chance.

– Trump’s primetime national address Wednesday at 9 p.m. ET could shift these odds dramatically.

Predict it here on Kalshi

What Happened

President Trump claimed on March 31 that the US could wrap up the Iran conflict “within two to three weeks.” Iran flatly rejected Washington’s proposed 15-point nuclear framework as “unrealistic and unreasonable.” Secretary of State Rubio said the primary objective of preventing Iran from building a nuclear weapon had been achieved. But the gap between the two sides appears to remain enormous, suggesting that a resolution may still be far off. Iran is demanding an end to hostilities, reparations, guarantees against future attacks, and recognition of its control over the Strait of Hormuz. Trump says he will not even consider Iran’s reported ceasefire request until the Strait is reopened, though a subsequent report suggested he may privately be willing to end the military campaign even if the Strait stays largely closed, contradicting his public stance. In the meantime, he has declared “we are blasting Iran into oblivion.” A Wall Street Journal report muddied things further. It suggested Trump may be willing to end the military campaign even if the Strait stays largely closed.

The Market

KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26MAY, the contract asking whether a US-Iran nuclear agreement happens before May, is trading around 10 cents. That implies roughly a 10% probability, suggesting deep skepticism that Iran’s long list of preconditions can be resolved in weeks. Even looking out four months, bettors see only about a one-in-three chance of a deal. Even looking out four months, bettors see only about a one-in-four chance of a deal.

What to Watch

Trump’s primetime national address Wednesday, April 1 at 9 p.m. ET appears to be the immediate catalyst, suggesting it may have been the primary trigger for the move. If he signals willingness to meet Iran’s conditions or announces direct negotiations, traders may interpret this as a catalyst that could cause near-term contracts to spike. If the speech doubles down on military escalation with no diplomatic offramp, expect the April and May contracts to drift toward zero.

Related Markets

• Average traffic through the Strait of Hormuz on Apr 1, 2026? — 28¢
• Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (3/30 – 4/5) — 92¢
• When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — 20¢
• Who will visit Iran before July? — 8¢
• Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026? — 16¢
• Will Iran hold a presidential election? — 20¢
• U.S. imports from Iran >$5M in 2026? — 30¢
• Iran to compete in the 2026 FIFA World Cup — 70¢

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This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.

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