Kalshi Traders Doubt Trump’s Iran Timeline for Strait of Hormuz

– Trump says U.S. will finish attacking Iran in two to three weeks, but Iran’s foreign minister warns of six months of war.

– Kalshi’s Strait of Hormuz normalization contract for before June 1 is trading around 45 cents, implying less than coin-flip odds.

– Trump delivers a nationally televised address on the Iran war Wednesday evening, April 1, which could shift prices fast.

Predict it here on Kalshi

What Happened

President Trump previewed his upcoming address on Tuesday, saying that the United States will be done attacking Iran “probably in two to three weeks” and that the U.S. “will not have anything to do with” what happens next in the Strait of Hormuz, remarks he would expand upon in greater detail during his nationally televised address the following evening. The Strait has been largely closed for roughly five weeks since the conflict began, pushing oil prices sharply higher and stoking fears of a global recession. Iran’s foreign minister directly contradicted Trump’s timeline, saying Iran is prepared for “at least six months” of war. Iran has not agreed to formal negotiations with the United States.

The Market

The before-June-1 Strait of Hormuz normalization contract (KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601) is trading around 45 cents, giving the waterway a just-below-coin-flip chance of reopening in the next two months. The before-July-1 contract is trading around 57 cents, suggesting traders see the summer as the more realistic window for normalization.

What to Watch

Trump’s nationally televised address on the Iran war Wednesday evening, April 1, appears to be the immediate catalyst, suggesting markets are reacting directly to the escalation in rhetoric. Any concrete withdrawal timeline or mention of Strait reopening plans could push the June contract well above 50 cents. Conversely, signs of escalation or Iranian retaliation could likely hammer prices across all date brackets, suggesting that geopolitical risk remains a dominant driver traders may interpret as grounds for broad-based selling.

Related Markets

• Average traffic through the Strait of Hormuz on Apr 1, 2026? — 28¢
• Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (3/30 – 4/5) — 92¢
• How high will WTI oil get by Dec 31, 2026? — 20¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal? — 1¢
• Who will visit Iran before July? — 8¢
• Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026? — 16¢
• Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026? — 24¢
• Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? — 12¢
• Recession this year? — 28¢

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This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.

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