Kalshi Traders Bet Strait of Hormuz Stays Nearly Shut
– Trump extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to April 6, pausing planned strikes for 10 days.
– Kalshi’s April 1 ship traffic contract prices suggest traders see very low odds of significant vessel passage resuming soon.
– Watch April 6 at 8 PM ET, when Trump’s extended deadline expires and military escalation could follow.
What Happened
The Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, remains effectively closed after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps turned back three vessels and declared it shut to hostile shipping—a signal that Tehran may be leveraging passage control as a broader strategic bargaining tool. On March 27, Trump pushed his deadline for Iran to reopen the strait from March 28 to April 6, pausing planned strikes on Iranian energy plants for 10 days. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US expects its operation in Iran to wrap up in “weeks, not months.” Iran rejected the American 15-point ceasefire proposal and countered with five conditions, including recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the strait.
The Market
KXHORMUZTRAFFIC-26APR01-T10, which pays out if more than 10 ships transit the strait by April 1, last had a bid of 26 cents and an ask of 30 cents. That implies roughly a 28 percent chance even a handful of ships get through. The “above 50 ships” contract for the same period is trading around 3 cents. Traders may interpret current conditions as suggesting a near-zero chance of anything close to normal flow. The market puts roughly a 43 percent chance on strait traffic returning to normal before June 1. The market puts roughly coin-flip odds on strait traffic returning to normal before June 1.
What to Watch
Trump’s extended deadline of April 6 at 8 PM Eastern is the pivotal date. If Iran does not reopen the strait, Trump has threatened destruction of Iranian power plants. That would likely push traffic contracts toward zero and drag the normalization contract sharply lower. Any surprise diplomatic breakthrough accepting even partial shipping resumption could send the traffic contracts surging overnight.
Related Markets
- Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (3/23 – 3/29) — 14¢
- US-Iran nuclear deal? — 2¢
- Will Iran become a democracy in 2026? — 8¢
- Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026? — 16¢
- Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026? — 24¢
- Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? — 14¢
- How high will WTI oil get by Dec 31, 2026? — 19¢
This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.
Related Reading
WTI Yearly-High Contracts Bid 18¢–31¢ as Hormuz Closure Pushes Oil Past $100 on Kalshi
WTI Oil Strikes at 17¢–32¢ as Hormuz Blockade Redraws the Range
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