Is Keir Starmer the Next G7 Leader Out? Kalshi Odds Surge to 66%

The Trade

Someone just mass-bought YES contracts betting that Keir Starmer will be the next G7 leader to leave office. The action came in two rapid sweeps: a 152-contract buy at 3:03 PM ET, followed by a 42-contract buy at 3:04 PM ET. Total YES volume: 199 contracts worth roughly $100. Trading at 66 cents on the bid — that suggests the market sees approximately a 66% chance Starmer exits before any other G7 leader.

📈 Predict it here on Kalshi →

The Price Impact

This market opened at 0 cents and launched to 66 cents, a full 66-cent move from open. A 76-contract NO block was placed at 1:57 PM ET — representing real pushback — but YES buyers absorbed it entirely and kept buying. Flow is heavily one-directional: 199 YES contracts versus 76 NO. The NO side has not recovered.

What This Market Is

Kalshi is asking which G7 leader will be the first to leave office. This specific contract covers Keir Starmer, the UK Prime Minister. Buy YES at 66 cents and collect $1 if Starmer exits first. If someone else leaves first, you lose your 66 cents.

The Bottom Line

199 YES contracts to 76 NO — the market strongly suggests Starmer is now the clear frontrunner to be the next G7 leader out.

This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.

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