Oil Prices Surge Past $100 — Kalshi Markets Price Extreme Spikes

– Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz in March, sending Brent crude from $72 to nearly $120 in one month.

– Kalshi’s WTI yearly high contracts show traders pricing real odds of oil reaching $160 or even $200 this year.

– The Strait must reopen by mid-April or supply disruptions worsen sharply as emergency reserves run thin.

Predict it here on Kalshi

What Happened

The U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, which began in late February, has upended global oil markets. Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz in March, choking off the world’s most critical oil transit route. Brent crude surged from $72.48 on February 27 to $112.57 by March 27, hitting as high as $119.50 during the month. WTI crude futures traded at $101.01 on March 30. Analysts at Societe Generale warned that prolonged Middle East supply disruption could push prices to $150 per barrel in April.

The Market

KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T180 pays out if WTI’s highest daily settle this year tops $180. It is part of a 13-contract series with over one million contracts in open interest. The broader series saw 57,366 contracts trade in the past 24 hours alone, signaling heavy positioning across price levels. KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T160, covering a yearly high above $160, is trading around 33 cents. The $200 threshold contract is trading around 19 cents, meaning roughly one-in-five odds the market sees an extreme blowout.

What to Watch

Oil executives and analysts have identified mid-April as a critical deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Emergency measures, including a 400-million-barrel strategic reserve release, lose effectiveness in early-to-mid April. If the strait remains closed past that window, the $160 and $200 contracts could reprice dramatically higher overnight.

Related Markets

• Highest natural gas spot price in​ 2026 — 54¢
• How high will gas prices in California get this year? — 65¢
• How high will gas prices in Texas get this year? — 47¢
• Brent crude oil price on Apr 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT? — 16¢
• WTI oil price on Apr 3, 2026? — 26¢
• U.S. oil production per day in 2026 — 29¢
• Number of US oil rigs at end of 2026 — 65¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal? — 1¢

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This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.

Related Reading

WTI Yearly-High Contracts Bid 18¢–31¢ as Hormuz Closure Pushes Oil Past $100 on Kalshi

Kalshi Traders Bet Strait of Hormuz Stays Nearly Shut

WTI Oil Strikes at 17¢–32¢ as Hormuz Blockade Redraws the Range