Prediction Market Odds Shift as Sacks Exits Crypto Czar Role

# Prediction Market Odds on U.S. Government AI Takeover Hold Steady at 34%

– A federal judge blocked the Pentagon from retaliating against Anthropic over a collapsed $200 million defense AI contract dispute.

– Kalshi’s U.S. AI takeover contract trades around 34 cents, giving roughly a 34% chance the government seizes control of an AI company before 2030.

– A court compliance report due April 6 could signal whether federal pressure on AI firms escalates or retreats.

Predict it here on Kalshi

What Happened

A federal judge issued a preliminary injunction blocking the Pentagon from designating Anthropic a supply chain risk. The designation threat came after Anthropic refused to let its Claude model be used for mass surveillance or lethal autonomous warfare. That refusal appears to have torpedoed a $200 million Defense Department AI contract, suggesting the decision carried significant financial consequences for the company. Secretary of War Hegseth had warned the label would follow if Anthropic did not drop its restrictions. Separately, David Sacks revealed Thursday he exhausted his 130-day special government employee allowance. This ended his role as Trump’s AI and crypto czar. He will now co-chair PCAST, a federal advisory body that studies issues and sends recommendations. PCAST cannot make policy, draft executive orders, or coordinate between agencies.

The Market

KXUSTAKEOVER-30 is trading around 34 cents, reflecting roughly a 34% chance the U.S. government acquires majority ownership or operational control of an AI company before 2030. The Anthropic standoff appears to show the government testing aggressive leverage, suggesting a willingness to push boundaries, yet a court stepped in to block it—which could indicate limits to that strategy. That may explain why the price has not moved sharply in either direction.

What to Watch

The court stayed its injunction for seven days, with a compliance report due by April 6, 2026. If the Pentagon defies the ruling or Congress introduces nationalization legislation in response, expect the contract to jump. If the government backs down, and Sacks’s move to the toothless PCAST is seen as signaling a softer posture, traders may interpret this as a reason the price could drift lower.

Related Markets

• Will Anthropic win its lawsuit against the Pentagon? — 88¢ (~88% chance)
• Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? — 68¢ (~68% chance)
• Will AI regulation become law in 2026? — 22¢ (~22% chance)
• Will Anthropic release Claude 5 this year? — 94¢ (~94% chance)
• When will any company achieve AGI? — 62¢ (~62% chance)
• Will any of the major AI companies pause research for safety reasons before 2027? — 12¢ (~12% chance)
• New York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit? — 60¢ (~60% chance)
• Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? — 54¢ (~54% chance)
• Will the SCOTUS hear a case about AI and copyright law before 2027? — 26¢ (~26% chance)
• Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030? — 55¢ (~55% chance)

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This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.

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