Who Will Be Israel’s Next PM? Ben-Gvir Kalshi Odds Hit 23-27c on Sweep

Itamar Ben-Gvir’s contract on Kalshi’s “Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?” market drew a clean four-fill sweep at 12:24 PM ET today, with all 37 contracts going to YES buyers and zero NO-side counterweight. The total dollar value was roughly $18. With a current bid of 23c and ask of 27c, the market is pricing Ben-Gvir’s chances somewhere in that range — a wide spread that reflects genuine uncertainty about this long-horizon contract, which resolves January 1, 2045.

The Ben-Gvir sweep wasn’t the only YES flow in this market today. Netanyahu’s leg (NBEN) saw its own four-fill sweep at 1:10 PM ET — 31 contracts worth $14 — on top of an earlier 25-contract block placed at 11:14 AM. That leg’s last trade was 26c, with a bid/ask of 26-27c. Across the broader Israel PM market, virtually every candidate leg recorded YES-only flow with no NO pressure anywhere in the session. That pattern suggests someone is methodically seeding liquidity across multiple legs rather than making a concentrated directional bet on one candidate.

Among the more notable moves elsewhere in the group, the Gideon Eisenkot leg (GEIS) saw a 700-contract sweep at 10:16 AM worth $350 — by far the largest single trade block in the Israel PM cluster today.

What to watch: Ben-Gvir sits at the second-highest implied probability among active candidates, trailing Netanyahu. Whether the bid tightens toward 25c or retreats below 20c would suggest whether today’s buying found any real follow-through.

This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.

---

Related Articles

• Trump Iran Visit Odds Near Zero on Kalshi Amid Active War
• US-Iran Nuclear Deal Odds at 43¢ on Kalshi Amid Active War
• Will Ken Paxton Win the Texas GOP Senate Nomination? Ken Paxton Trading at 80%