Who Will Be Israel’s Next PM? Kalshi Odds Put Ben-Gvir and Bennett Near 27c

Kalshi launched a new market this week asking who will become Israel’s next new Prime Minister before January 2045, and early order flow pointed strongly toward two names: Itamar Ben-Gvir and Naftali Bennett.

What Moved

Ben-Gvir (ticker IKAT) drew the heaviest early action. At 12:24 PM ET, a single sweep bought 37 YES contracts across 4 fills, totaling roughly $18 in value. The contract now sits at a bid-ask of 24-27c, suggesting the market places roughly a one-in-four chance on Ben-Gvir becoming PM.

Bennett (NBEN) followed at 1:10 PM ET with a 31-contract YES sweep in 4 fills, worth about $16. That contract trades at 26-27c, nearly identical to Ben-Gvir’s implied probability.

Yair Lapid (YLEV) saw a 19-contract YES trade at 12:09 PM ET worth $10, landing at a last trade of 10c — a much lower implied probability than the top two.

Context and Price Discovery

All of these are newly launched markets, so the chg24h figures reflect full price discovery from zero rather than movement off an established baseline. No NO-side pressure appeared in any of these three contracts during the analysis window. Every fill recorded was YES buying.

What to Watch

The market resolves no later than January 1, 2045, giving it a very long runway. With spreads at 3c on the leading contracts, price discovery is still early. Watch whether Bennett or Ben-Gvir pulls ahead as volume builds, and whether any NO-side traders enter to push back on current levels.

This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.

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