[Whale Watch] $20K NO on CPI Year-Over-Year Above 2.8% in Mar 2026 at 99c (4:39:14 PM ET)

The Trade

Someone just bet $20K that year-over-year CPI in March 2026 will NOT exceed 2.8%. That’s 20,000 contracts bought at 99 cents each, meaning the market sees this outcome as nearly certain — 99 cents = ~99% probability.

📈 Predict it here on Kalshi →

The Price Impact

The price held steady at 1 cent on the YES side before and after the trade, with zero movement — the bet didn’t budge the market at all. NO side remains deeply dominant, with the ask sitting at 2 cents.

What This Market Is

This market asks whether U.S. inflation, measured year-over-year, will come in above 2.8% in March 2026. YES pays if it does; NO pays if it doesn’t.

The Bottom Line

Someone is parking $20K on inflation staying tame through early next year, and the market agrees almost unanimously.

This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.

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