culture

2027 Oscar Best Picture odds sit wide on Kalshi with no trades yet

ByNews2Bet Staff March 17, 2026

THE MISPRICING

One film is already listed in Kalshi’s 2027 Best Picture nomination market, but it has not attracted a single trade, with the contract sitting at zero total volume. Wild Horse Nine leads the field at a YES bid of 42¢ / ask of 49¢, followed by The Social Reckoning at a bid of 32¢ / ask of 39¢, and Werwulf at a bid of 21¢ / ask of 29¢ — with any trader crossing Werwulf’s spread specifically facing those posted quotes of 21¢ bid and 29¢ ask. All three contracts — tickers KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-WIL, KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-SOC, and KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-WER — show zero open interest and zero total volume.

📈 Predict it here on Kalshi →

THE CONTRACT

These markets close on the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of all 2027 Oscar nominees, or December 31, 2027. Resolution is sourced from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, with Kalshi cross-referencing Deadline and The Hollywood Reporter for nominee lists. The 98th Academy Awards concluded in March 2026, so these contracts are sitting dormant at the start of a new cycle with no trades executed yet, though market makers have already posted preliminary bid/ask quotes, meaning some early pricing information exists even if liquidity remains thin.

THE CONTEXT

The 2026 cycle showed what this market can become. Kalshi alone generated roughly $25 million in Best Picture volume for the 98th ceremony, part of approximately $113 million in total Oscars trading on the platform. Prediction markets correctly called 19 of 24 categories that night, including Best Picture.

THE RISK TO THE CALL

The wide bid/ask spreads — 7¢ on Wild Horse Nine, 7¢ on The Social Reckoning, 8¢ on Werwulf — reflect genuine uncertainty this early in the cycle. Any trader crossing the spread today is paying a steep price for liquidity, transacting against posted quotes of 21¢ bid and 29¢ ask despite zero open interest and no trading volume to date.

➜ 2027 Oscar Best Picture nomination markets open on Kalshi at wide spreads

➜ “One Battle After Another” Sweeps Oscars on Kalshi at 99¢