Will Iran Close the Strait of Hormuz for 7+ Days? Kalshi Drops to 90¢

THE MOVE

The Kalshi market on whether Iran will effectively close the Strait of Hormuz for 7 or more days has slipped to 90¢, down 3¢ from 93¢, as sustained NO pressure chips away at what was near-certain territory. The last trade executed at 90¢, with a tight bid of 90¢ and ask of 91¢. As of 6:26 PM ET, the market has logged 444,434 contracts in 24-hour volume against an open interest of 807,384.

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THE DATA

NO takers account for 89.1% of all taker volume, with 141,430 contracts sold against just 17,257 on the YES side. The pressure began early with a coordinated 7-fill sweep at 2:42 PM ET clearing 24,831 contracts across prices from 92¢ down, followed by a 15-fill sweep at 2:44 PM ET hitting 14,215 contracts at prices ranging from 87¢ to 91¢. A later sweep at 5:45 PM ET added another 10,445 contracts at 91¢. The largest single trade was a NO execution of 7,892 contracts at 92¢, with multiple additional blocks of 5,000 and 6,955 contracts hitting the tape through the afternoon and evening.

THE CONTEXT

News reports confirm the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed through Iranian drone activity amid the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, with oil prices spiking sharply in response. The key question bettors are now pricing is duration — specifically whether the closure holds through the May resolution date. Watch for any ceasefire signals or resumed tanker transit as the catalyst that could accelerate this move lower.