Kalshi Odds Shift as Iran Reopens Hormuz to Oil Tankers

Oil Prices Hit $94 as Iran Rejects Talks — Prediction Markets Eye $98+

– Iran’s foreign minister rejected direct negotiations on March 26, sending WTI crude back above $94 after a ceasefire dip.

– Kalshi’s March 30 contract for WTI hitting $98 or above is trading around 43 cents — roughly a 43% chance.

– Watch April 6, when Trump’s deadline for striking Iranian energy infrastructure expires.

Predict it here on Kalshi

What Happened

Iran’s foreign minister publicly rejected direct negotiations on March 26, 2026. The rejection erased the previous day’s ceasefire-driven dip and pushed WTI crude to $94.48 per barrel, suggesting that the market viewed diplomatic setbacks as a catalyst for renewed upward pressure on prices. The move suggested just how headline-sensitive this market may have become. Oil has closed down only 5 of 18 trading sessions since the war began February 28. WTI is now up more than 40% since the conflict started and over 60% since January.

The Market

KXWTI-26MAR30-T97.99, which pays out if WTI settles at $98 or above by March 30, is trading around 43 cents. The $98 strike sits only $3.50 above current prices. For the higher $100 bar, KXWTI-26MAR30-T99.99 is trading around 32 cents — roughly a 32% chance WTI clears triple digits before the month ends.

What to Watch

The hard date is April 6, when Trump’s deadline to strike Iranian energy infrastructure — including Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports — expires, suggesting that the absence of a substantive Iranian response could signal an escalation in tensions. A confirmed strike or Strait of Hormuz disruption would push the March 30 contracts sharply higher and light up the longer-dated KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T180, which currently asks at 19 cents — roughly a 19% chance WTI reaches $180 or above at any point this year.

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This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.

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