The prediction market landscape has exploded. Here’s every major platform, what you can trade, how they’re regulated, and the state-by-state legal battles reshaping the industry in real time.
The Big Picture: U.S. Prediction Markets in Early 2026
The U.S. prediction market ecosystem is almost unrecognizable from where it stood six months ago. What was a two-platform race between Kalshi and Polymarket in late 2025 has become a crowded, fast-moving industry with over a dozen platforms competing for traders—and generating legal battles across more than 20 states.
The numbers tell the story. Polymarket and Kalshi generated a combined $37 billion in trading volume in 2025, according to The Block’s 2026 Digital Assets Outlook Report. Industry-wide, prediction market volume grew an estimated 130-fold from early 2024, rising from less than $100 million per month to more than $13 billion per month by the end of 2025.
In 2026, the landscape breaks into four tiers:
CFTC-regulated exchanges that operate as Designated Contract Markets: Kalshi, Polymarket US (via QCX), Railbird (acquired by Robinhood), CME Group (partnered with FanDuel and DraftKings), and the newly designated Xchange Alpha.
Mainstream fintech and crypto companies distributing prediction markets through existing apps: Robinhood, Coinbase, Crypto.com, and others that route trades through CFTC-regulated exchanges.
Legacy sportsbook operators launching prediction market products: FanDuel Predicts, DraftKings Predictions, Fanatics Markets, PrizePicks (via Kalshi partnership), and Underdog.
Social and sweepstakes prediction markets that operate outside CFTC oversight under state sweepstakes law: Novig, ProphetX, Verse Picks, and Manifold Markets.
Each contract across these platforms works the same fundamental way: it pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn’t. The price in cents represents the market’s implied probability. A contract trading at 30¢ means traders collectively see about a 30% chance of that outcome occurring.
All of this is happening against a backdrop of escalating regulatory conflict. The Trump administration’s CFTC is aggressively defending federal jurisdiction over prediction markets, while more than 20 states—led by Nevada—are suing to shut platforms down or force them to obtain state gambling licenses. That fight is headed for the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, with oral arguments expected in April 2026.
Tier 1: The CFTC-Regulated Exchanges
These are the core exchanges that hold Designated Contract Market status from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. They operate the order books and clearinghouses that most prediction market trades ultimately flow through—even when the trader is using a third-party app like Robinhood or Coinbase.
1. Kalshi
What it is: The dominant U.S. prediction market exchange and the first platform to receive full CFTC approval for event contracts.
2025 performance: $23.8 billion in trading volume, a 1,108% year-over-year increase. Total fee revenue reached approximately $260 million, with $235 million (roughly 89%) coming from sports contracts. Kalshi raised a $1 billion Series E in December 2025 led by Paradigm, valuing the company at $11 billion.
What you can trade: Sports event contracts are the primary volume driver, covering the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, college football, college basketball, and more. Kalshi offers winner, spread, and total contracts along with player props. Parlays are available with up to four legs across different games.
Beyond sports, Kalshi lists contracts on presidential races, Congressional control, government shutdown odds, Supreme Court rulings, CPI readings, Fed interest rate decisions, unemployment data, GDP growth, cryptocurrency price levels, entertainment awards, and dozens of niche categories. The platform currently handles more than 60% of global prediction market volume.
Fees: $0.02 per contract to open and $0.02 to close early. If you hold to settlement and win, the fee is waived. Kalshi also pays approximately 4% APY on uninvested cash balances.
Access: Available in most U.S. states. Kalshi is blocked or restricted in New Jersey and faces active legal challenges in Nevada and several other states. The platform is accessible through its own app, through Robinhood’s integration, through Coinbase, through PrizePicks, and through Sleeper (a partnership that went live in February 2026).
Key detail: Donald Trump Jr. serves as a strategic advisor to Kalshi, a relationship that has drawn scrutiny given the Trump administration’s CFTC support for the platform’s legal battles.
2. Polymarket US (QCX)
What it is: The world’s most recognized prediction market brand, now operating in the U.S. through QCX, a regulated exchange and clearing organization it acquired in 2025.
Background: Polymarket was fined and forced out of the U.S. in 2022 by the CFTC. It dominated globally through its crypto-based platform (settled in USDC on Polygon) before returning to the U.S. market under full CFTC oversight. In October 2025, the Intercontinental Exchange—the company behind the New York Stock Exchange—invested $2 billion in Polymarket at a pre-deal valuation of $8 billion.
What you can trade: The U.S. rollout initially emphasized sports markets, with politics, economics, and culture categories labeled as “coming soon.” On the global platform, Polymarket hosts 279 active Trump-related markets alone, with over $606 million in cumulative Trump-related volume. Major active markets include the 2028 presidential race ($298 million in volume), the Fed chair nomination ($490 million), Fed interest rate decisions ($129 million), and Supreme Court tariff rulings.
Roughly half of Polymarket’s global trading volume is tied to sports, with the other half spread across politics, economics, crypto, and culture.
Fees: Polymarket’s global platform charges no trading fees, relying on spread revenue. U.S. fee structures through QCX may differ.
Access: Available via waitlist rollout in the U.S. Polymarket faces active legal challenges in Nevada (where a court issued a temporary restraining order blocking the platform from offering event contracts) and other states.
Key detail: Donald Trump Jr.’s venture capital firm has invested in Polymarket, creating a parallel conflict-of-interest concern to his Kalshi advisory role.
3. Railbird Exchange / MIAXdx (Robinhood)
What it is: Railbird became a CFTC-designated contract market in 2025, emphasizing sports-centric event contracts. Robinhood acquired Railbird’s parent company (announced as the MIAXdx acquisition) as part of its plan to build a proprietary prediction market exchange rather than continue routing trades through Kalshi.
What you can trade: Sports event contracts have been the primary focus, with expansion into financial indicators. Robinhood’s prediction markets hub launched in March 2025 and has since expanded to cover sports, economics, politics, and culture.
Key detail: Robinhood initially drove more than 50% of Kalshi’s trading volume through their partnership. The MIAXdx acquisition signals Robinhood’s intention to become a standalone prediction market exchange, which could reshape the competitive landscape when it launches its own order book. The timeline for the transition is expected in 2026.
4. CME Group
What it is: The world’s leading derivatives exchange, partnering with sportsbook operators to bring standardized event contracts to market under its existing CFTC registration.
Partnerships: CME Group is the underlying exchange infrastructure for both FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions. It has self-certified markets for Super Bowl combos (parlays), Grammy outcomes, Olympic events, and hockey puck lines, among others.
What you can trade: Sports event contracts and financial indicators are the primary categories, distributed through partner platforms rather than directly to retail traders.
5. Xchange Alpha
What it is: A newly designated contract market that received its CFTC order in late 2025/early 2026, adding another regulated venue to the ecosystem.
Tier 2: Mainstream Fintech and Crypto Distributors
These companies don’t operate their own prediction market exchanges (or are in the process of building them). Instead, they distribute contracts from CFTC-regulated exchanges through their existing apps, bringing prediction markets to millions of users who already trade stocks, crypto, or other assets.
6. Robinhood
What it is: The popular commission-free trading app that integrated Kalshi’s prediction markets in March 2025 and quickly became one of the largest sources of prediction market volume.
What you can trade: All Kalshi-listed markets are accessible through Robinhood, including sports, politics, economics, and culture. The interface is designed to feel like buying and selling stocks.
Key detail: Robinhood’s acquisition of MIAXdx means it is transitioning from a Kalshi distributor to a potential direct competitor. During the transition period, Kalshi markets remain available in the Robinhood app.
7. Coinbase
What it is: The largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, which entered prediction markets by acquiring startup The Clearing Company in December 2025 (deal closed January 2026). Coinbase launched prediction markets in all 50 states, routing through Kalshi’s exchange infrastructure.
What you can trade: All Kalshi-listed markets. Coinbase positions its offering as an extension of its crypto trading experience, emphasizing the exchange model where prices are set by crowd consensus rather than a house.
Legal activity: Coinbase has filed suits in Michigan, Illinois, and Connecticut arguing that prediction markets should be overseen by the CFTC under federal law, not treated as gambling under state rules. The Nevada Gaming Control Board has also taken enforcement action against Coinbase’s prediction market offerings.
8. Crypto.com
What it is: A major crypto platform that launched OG, a standalone prediction market trading app, in February 2026. Crypto.com has been among the most aggressive new entrants in the space.
What you can trade: Sports, politics, economics, and culture. Crypto.com goes beyond sports-only offerings, listing political and economic contracts that compete directly with Kalshi and Polymarket.
Industry role: Crypto.com co-founded a national prediction market trade group alongside Kalshi, with early members including Coinbase, Robinhood, and Underdog. The group is focused on lobbying for federal regulatory clarity as state-level legal challenges intensify.
Legal activity: Crypto.com is part of the consolidated Ninth Circuit proceedings against the Nevada Gaming Control Board, with oral arguments expected in April 2026.
Tier 3: Sportsbook Operators Entering Prediction Markets
The biggest names in legal U.S. sports betting have all launched prediction market products, treating event contracts as a complement to their existing sportsbook and daily fantasy operations. These platforms are generally more limited in market selection than dedicated prediction exchanges, but they bring massive existing user bases.
9. FanDuel Predicts
What it is: FanDuel’s prediction market product, launched in partnership with CME Group. FanDuel initially rolled out in five states (Alabama, Alaska, South Carolina, North Dakota, and South Dakota) in late 2025, then expanded to 18 states for sports and all 50 states for non-sports markets.
What you can trade: Sports event contracts for basketball, hockey, football, and baseball, along with non-sports markets in states where those are permitted. FanDuel Predicts emphasizes zero-commission trades as a selling point.
Key detail: Flutter Entertainment, FanDuel’s parent company, has signaled plans to invest $200–300 million in prediction markets. FanDuel’s existing base of more than 12 million users gives it enormous distribution potential, even though its market selection is currently narrower than Kalshi or Polymarket.
10. DraftKings Predictions
What it is: DraftKings’ standalone prediction market app, launched in mid-December 2025 under CFTC oversight through CME Group’s exchange infrastructure. Available across 38 states.
What you can trade: Sports and financial event contracts launched first, with additional categories expected as the platform expands. DraftKings also acquired Railbird before Robinhood’s larger MIAXdx deal, and its product design draws on its DFS contest and sportsbook experience.
Key detail: Both DraftKings and Fanatics launched prediction markets, but industry observers note that trading on both platforms is more restricted than on Kalshi or Polymarket, with higher odds and fees. DraftKings has expanded its event contract roster to include additional markets through Crypto.com’s OG platform.
11. Fanatics Markets
What it is: Fanatics launched its prediction market in early December 2025, with a Phase I rollout in select states covering sports, politics, and other markets. Phase II is expected to expand both state availability and market categories.
What you can trade: Sports, politics, and other categories in select states. Details on Phase II expansion and full market catalog have not been publicly finalized.
12. PrizePicks Predict
What it is: PrizePicks, originally a daily fantasy sports platform focused on pick’em games, launched prediction markets through a partnership with Kalshi. Trades route through Kalshi’s exchange.
What you can trade: Sporting events and other Kalshi-listed markets, presented through PrizePicks’ pick’em-style interface.
13. Underdog
What it is: Underdog approaches prediction markets through a fantasy-first lens, offering pick’em style contests and outcome-based trading. The platform is designed for casual sports fans rather than active traders.
What you can trade: Sports outcome predictions. Underdog does not function as a traditional prediction exchange but its outcome-based products compete in the same space.
Industry role: Underdog is a member of the national prediction market trade group co-founded by Kalshi and Crypto.com.
Tier 4: Social and Sweepstakes Prediction Markets
These platforms operate outside CFTC regulation, using virtual currencies and sweepstakes models to comply with state-level laws rather than federal derivatives rules. They are available in more states than CFTC-regulated platforms in some cases, but winnings are typically in redeemable sweepstakes currency rather than direct cash payouts.
14. Novig
What it is: A peer-to-peer sports prediction market using a sweepstakes model with dual currencies (Novig Coins for practice, Novig Cash for redeemable prizes). Novig raised $75 million and is pursuing CFTC approval to cover U.S. users who buy contracts.
What you can trade: Sports predictions, with odds driven entirely by supply and demand among users rather than set by a house. Novig includes social features like group chats and leaderboards.
Key detail: Novig is mobile-only and markets itself as “America’s #1 sports prediction market.” It plans to roll out broader market categories once it gains CFTC approval.
15. ProphetX
What it is: A social prediction market similar to Novig’s exchange model, focused on props and totals for the NFL, NBA, and soccer. Operates under the sweepstakes model.
16. Verse Picks
What it is: A social prediction platform that lets users predict sporting events. Like Novig and ProphetX, it operates under sweepstakes law rather than CFTC oversight.
17. Manifold Markets
What it is: A play-money prediction market that lets users create and trade on virtually any question. Manifold is not a real-money platform but is widely used for calibrating probabilities and has a loyal community of policy-focused traders.
What You Can Trade: The Major Categories
The range of tradeable topics has expanded dramatically since late 2025. Here’s what’s available across the full ecosystem:
Politics and Elections
Presidential race odds for 2028, with over $298 million traded on Polymarket alone. Congressional control markets for the 2026 midterms. Government shutdown timing and duration. Supreme Court rulings, including the landmark tariff case with over $9 million wagered. Cabinet nominations, policy outcomes, and confirmation timelines. Impeachment and resignation odds.
Economics and the Fed
Federal Reserve interest rate decisions—the March 2026 “no change” contract trades at 93% on Polymarket. Fed chair nomination, where Kevin Warsh holds 94% odds in a $490 million market. CPI readings, unemployment data, GDP growth targets, and recession probability. These markets are increasingly treated as hedging tools by institutional traders.
Sports
The dominant volume category across virtually every platform. NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, college football, college basketball, soccer, golf, and more. Winner, spread, total, player props, and futures contracts. Kalshi reported over $1 billion in Super Bowl volume alone. Parlays (called “combos” on some platforms) are available on Kalshi-powered platforms and expanding to CME-linked platforms.
Foreign Policy and Geopolitics
Ukraine ceasefire timing. U.S. acquisition or invasion of Greenland. NATO withdrawal odds. Iran conflict markets. Sanctions and diplomatic developments.
Crypto, Tech, and Culture
Bitcoin and Ethereum price levels on specific dates. AI model release timelines and tech company milestones. Oscar, Emmy, and Grammy predictions. Box office totals. Elon Musk tweet counts (a surprisingly active market category). Weather and climate data.
How the Platforms Differ: What to Compare
When evaluating prediction market platforms in 2026, five dimensions matter most:
Regulatory status. CFTC-regulated platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket US, CME-linked products) operate as federal derivatives and can theoretically function in all 50 states, though state challenges are actively restricting access in Nevada, New Jersey, and elsewhere. Sweepstakes platforms (Novig, ProphetX) operate under state-specific rules.
Market breadth. Kalshi and Polymarket offer the widest range of topics. Sportsbook-backed platforms (FanDuel Predicts, DraftKings Predictions) are narrower, mostly sports-focused with limited political and economic markets. Social platforms are almost entirely sports-only.
Fees and pricing. Fee structures vary significantly. Kalshi charges $0.02 per contract to open and close. FanDuel Predicts promotes zero-commission trades. Polymarket’s global platform charges no trading fees. Sportsbook-backed platforms generally have higher effective costs through wider spreads.
Liquidity and volume. Kalshi dominates overall U.S. volume (over 60% of global prediction market trading). Polymarket dominates in politics and current events. Sports liquidity is highest on Kalshi and Robinhood. Smaller platforms may have thin order books on niche markets.
Ease of access. Robinhood and Coinbase bring prediction markets inside familiar trading apps. FanDuel and DraftKings integrate prediction contracts into existing sportsbook experiences with millions of existing users. Standalone prediction apps require separate account creation and KYC verification.
The Regulatory Battlefield: Federal vs. State
The single biggest story shaping the prediction market landscape in 2026 is the regulatory war between federal and state authorities.
The federal position: The CFTC regulates prediction markets as derivatives, and that federal oversight has historically allowed platforms like Kalshi to operate nationally. The Trump administration has aggressively backed this position. CFTC Chairman Brian Selig published a Wall Street Journal op-ed declaring the agency would no longer tolerate state governments undermining its exclusive jurisdiction. On February 17, 2026, the CFTC filed an amicus brief supporting Kalshi and Polymarket against state enforcement actions.
The state position: More than 20 states have challenged prediction market operations, arguing that event contracts—especially sports contracts—are functionally gambling and require state licensing. Nevada’s Gaming Control Board has led the charge, suing Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, and Robinhood. Massachusetts issued a preliminary injunction in January 2026. New York Attorney General Letitia James warned residents that prediction markets lack consumer protections and said promoting unlicensed sports betting may carry civil or criminal liability.
The Ninth Circuit showdown: Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Robinhood all filed separate lawsuits against the Nevada Gaming Control Board. The Nevada regulator is seeking to consolidate these three cases into a single Ninth Circuit decision, with oral arguments expected in April 2026.
The conflict of interest: The Trump administration’s support for prediction markets has drawn scrutiny because Donald Trump Jr. is both a strategic advisor to Kalshi and an investor in Polymarket through his venture capital firm. Any favorable CFTC decisions could financially benefit the president’s family.
Bottom line for traders: If you live in a state that has taken enforcement action, your access to specific platforms may be restricted or may change without much warning. Nevada, New Jersey, and Massachusetts are the most actively contested states as of February 2026. The Ninth Circuit ruling, expected later in 2026, will likely set the legal framework for the entire industry.
What’s Coming Next
The prediction market industry is moving fast. Several developments are expected in the coming months:
Robinhood’s proprietary exchange (via MIAXdx) could launch in 2026, potentially breaking its current dependency on Kalshi and reshaping the competitive landscape.
Polymarket’s full U.S. rollout beyond the initial waitlist is expected to expand throughout 2026, with political and economic markets coming to the U.S. app.
FanDuel Predicts is expanding state-by-state, with Flutter Entertainment investing up to $300 million in prediction market products.
The Ninth Circuit oral arguments in April 2026 could produce a precedent-setting ruling on whether federal CFTC jurisdiction preempts state gambling regulation for sports event contracts.
Institutional adoption continues to grow, with hedge funds and financial firms increasingly using economic event contracts as hedging and price-discovery tools.
New exchange designations (like Xchange Alpha) signal that the CFTC is open to approving more competition, not consolidating around a few incumbents.
The Bottom Line
The U.S. prediction market ecosystem in early 2026 includes at least 17 platforms spanning four distinct regulatory tiers. Combined trading volume exceeded $37 billion in 2025 and is on pace to grow further. Sports contracts dominate volume on virtually every platform, but politics, economics, and culture are the categories generating the most public attention and regulatory scrutiny.
The biggest risk for traders isn’t picking the wrong outcome—it’s regulatory uncertainty. State-level legal challenges could restrict access in specific jurisdictions, and the Ninth Circuit ruling expected later this year will determine whether prediction markets continue to operate under a single federal framework or face a patchwork of state-by-state regulation.
For now, the market is wide open and growing fast.
This is not investment, trading, or legal advice. Odds and availability change constantly. Check your local laws and each platform’s terms before participating in any prediction market.
