![Prediction market illustration for [Whale Watch] $5K YES on S&P 500 at 6,435 or Above at 25c (10:44:33 AM ET)](https://news2bet.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/sp500-kalshi-prediction-market-6435-odds-768x419.jpg "[Whale Watch] $5K YES on S&P 500 at 6,435 or Above at 25c (10:44:33 AM ET)")
[Whale Watch] $5K YES on S&P 500 at 6,435 or Above at 25c (10:44:33 AM ET)
S&P 500 “6,435 or above” YES contracts traded at 25c, with a $5,000 whale entry driving a net 24-cent price swing on Kalshi.
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[Whale Watch] $7K YES on S&P 500 “6,455 or above” on Mar 31 2026 at 37c (10:34:47 AM ET)
S&P 500 “6,455 or above” Kalshi market draws $7,400 YES bet at 37c, with price sliding 6 cents to a ~37% implied probability.
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[Whale Watch] $9K NO on Will the Citrini Scenario Happen? (Yes) at 66c (10:28:14 AM ET)
The Citrini scenario Yes outcome holds at 34c after a $9,111 NO bet places 13,783 contracts against economic collapse conditions triggering before July 2028.
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[Whale Watch] $9K YES on More Tech Layoffs in 2026 Than in 2025? at 86c (10:13:31 AM ET)
More Tech Layoffs in 2026 Than in 2025? holds at 86c after a $8,650 YES whale trade of 10,000 contracts with no price movement.
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[Whale Watch] $5K NO on What will Nancy Pelosi say during MS NOW: Morning Joe? at 93c (9:06:00 AM ET)
NO pressure dominates the “What will Pelosi say on Morning Joe?” market, with a $5,459 whale trade pushing YES odds to 7%.
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[Whale Watch] $19K YES on S&P 500 Above 6,364.9999 at Mar 30 10am EDT at 95c (9:57:45 AM ET)
S&P 500 above 6,364.9999 market sees $18,952 YES whale at 95c, with 100% of flow bullish across 5 trades spanning 39 minutes.
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Oil Prices Surge Past $100 — Kalshi Markets Price Extreme Spikes
Iran’s Hormuz closure sent oil past $100. Kalshi traders are pricing real odds of $160 or $200 WTI.
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Kalshi Bets on a US-Iran Nuclear Deal Stay Low as Talks Stall
Iran rejected US ceasefire terms as talks stall. Kalshi’s deal contracts imply single-digit odds before May.
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Kalshi Traders Bet Strait of Hormuz Stays Nearly Shut
Kalshi markets price near-zero odds of normal Hormuz shipping as Trump’s April 6 deadline looms.
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Odds Shift as Zelenskyy Faces Saudi, EU, and US Aid Hurdles
Ukraine faces a defense funding crisis from three directions. Kalshi puts just 4% odds on Zelenskyy leaving before July.
![Prediction market illustration for [Whale Watch] $7K YES on S&P 500 "6,455 or above" on Mar 31 2026 at 37c (10:34:47 AM ET)](https://news2bet.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/sp500-kalshi-prediction-market-6455-odds-768x419.jpg "[Whale Watch] $7K YES on S&P 500 \"6,455 or above\" on Mar 31 2026 at 37c (10:34:47 AM ET)")
![Prediction market illustration for [Whale Watch] $9K NO on Will the Citrini Scenario Happen? (Yes) at 66c (10:28:14 AM ET)](https://news2bet.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/citrini-scenario-kalshi-prediction-market-no-bet-768x419.jpg "[Whale Watch] $9K NO on Will the Citrini Scenario Happen? (Yes) at 66c (10:28:14 AM ET)")
![Prediction market illustration for [Whale Watch] $9K YES on More Tech Layoffs in 2026 Than in 2025? at 86c (10:13:31 AM ET)](https://news2bet.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/tech-layoffs-2026-kalshi-prediction-market-2-768x419.jpg "[Whale Watch] $9K YES on More Tech Layoffs in 2026 Than in 2025? at 86c (10:13:31 AM ET)")
![Prediction market illustration for [Whale Watch] $5K NO on What will Nancy Pelosi say during MS NOW: Morning Joe? at 93c (9:06:00 AM ET)](https://news2bet.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/pelosi-morning-joe-kalshi-prediction-market-no-bet-768x419.jpg "[Whale Watch] $5K NO on What will Nancy Pelosi say during MS NOW: Morning Joe? at 93c (9:06:00 AM ET)")
![Prediction market illustration for [Whale Watch] $19K YES on S&P 500 Above 6,364.9999 at Mar 30 10am EDT at 95c (9:57:45 AM ET)](https://news2bet.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/sp500-kalshi-prediction-market-yes-whale-768x419.jpg "[Whale Watch] $19K YES on S&P 500 Above 6,364.9999 at Mar 30 10am EDT at 95c (9:57:45 AM ET)")
