Who Will Be Israel’s Next PM? Gideon Sa’ar Draws Biggest Kalshi Trade
Gideon Sa’ar drew a 700-contract, $350 sweep on Kalshi’s newly launched Israel next PM market, the largest single trade in the field.
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Trump Iran Visit Odds Near Zero on Kalshi Amid Active War
Trump Iran visit odds sit at a YES bid of 10¢ / ask of 11¢ on Kalshi through 2027, with near-zero volume amid active US-Israeli strikes.
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WTI Oil Yearly High Odds on Kalshi as Crude Tops $100
WTI crude tops $100 as U.S.-Iran war disrupts Hormuz flows. Kalshi’s $150 oil high contract trades at 36¢ bid / 40¢ ask.
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US-Iran Nuclear Deal Odds at 43¢ on Kalshi Amid Active War
US-Iran nuclear deal market sits at 43.5¢ for full-year odds, while the August contract prices in just 29% as active strikes continue.
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Will Iran Close the Strait of Hormuz for 7+ Days? Kalshi Drops to 90¢
The Kalshi Strait of Hormuz closure market has fallen to 90¢ from 93¢, with NO pressure representing 89% of taker volume across 444,434 contracts.
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Will the US Government Take Over an AI Company? Latest Update & Prediction
Buy YES on KXUSTAKEOVER-30 at 34.5 cents. The Pentagon’s unprecedented pressure campaign against Anthropic shows the government is already testing the legal…
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Will Ken Paxton Win the Texas GOP Senate Nomination? Ken Paxton Trading at 80%
Buy YES on KXSENATETXR-26-KP at 80 cents. Paxton leads the polls, has absorbed $100 million in attacks without dropping below 80 cents.
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Will Iran Close the Strait of Hormuz? Kalshi Contract at 25¢
Buy YES on KXCLOSEHORMUZ-27JAN at 25.5 cents. Traffic is already down 80%, one threshold point away from triggering a contract that pays out at a…
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Kamala Harris runs for California Governor at 3¢ — A Mispriced Long Shot?
A crazy idea that’s still likely overpriced. But she has name recognition!
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Texas Democratic Senate Nominee at 72¢ Talarico — Market Pricing In a Late Break?
Independent polls show Crockett ahead. Prediction markets disagree.
