Iran Nuclear Deal Odds on Kalshi as Ceasefire Clock Ticks
US-Iran ceasefire expires April 22. Kalshi traders price a nuclear deal before September at 60%.
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[Whale Watch] $14K YES on Government Shutdown At Least 55 Days at 96c (9:40:01 AM ET)
Government shutdown “At least 55 days” market holds at 96c after a $14,400 YES whale trade of 15,000 contracts on Kalshi.
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Anthropic Code Leak Shakes IPO Race — Kalshi Market Holds
Anthropic’s double code leak rattles enterprise trust, but Kalshi bettors still favor it to IPO before OpenAI.
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Trump’s Voter List Order Sparks State Revolts on Kalshi
Trump’s new voter-list order triggers multistate lawsuits. Kalshi’s Electoral Compact contract sits near 7 cents.
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Kalshi Traders Doubt Trump’s Iran Timeline for Strait of Hormuz
Kalshi traders give less than 50% odds the Strait of Hormuz reopens by June as Trump and Iran clash over war timelines.
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Kalshi Bettors Doubt a US-Iran Nuclear Deal Anytime Soon
Kalshi bettors give a US-Iran nuclear deal before May just a 10% chance as Trump addresses the nation Wednesday night.
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[Whale Watch] $44K YES on Democrats Win the House (Democratic Party) at 87c (11:40:21 AM ET)
Democrats win the House market holds at 87c after a $44K YES whale bet on the Democratic Party outcome across 50,269 contracts.
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[Whale Watch] $7K NO on Jon Ossoff 2028 Presidential Market at 96c (11:34:18 AM ET)
Jon Ossoff’s 2028 presidential odds hold near 4% as a $6,734 NO bet — 7,000 contracts at 96c — lands with zero price impact on Kalshi.
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[Whale Watch] $5K YES on S&P 500 “6,410 or above” on Mar 31 at 97c (10:59:47 AM ET)
S&P 500 “6,410 or above” market on Kalshi surged from 88c to 99c as YES volume hit $15,392 across 93 trades in 49 minutes.
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[Whale Watch] $5K YES on Will the Citrini Scenario Happen? at 34c (10:49:07 AM ET)
Will the Citrini Scenario Happen? holds at 34c after a $5,100 YES whale trade, with price up 4c across 200 trades over 12.9 hours.
![Prediction market illustration for [Whale Watch] $14K YES on Government Shutdown At Least 55 Days at 96c (9:40:01 AM ET)](https://news2bet.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/government-shutdown-55-days-kalshi-prediction-market-768x419.jpg "[Whale Watch] $14K YES on Government Shutdown At Least 55 Days at 96c (9:40:01 AM ET)")
![Prediction market illustration for [Whale Watch] $7K NO on Jon Ossoff 2028 Presidential Market at 96c (11:34:18 AM ET)](https://news2bet.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/jon-ossoff-2028-presidential-kalshi-prediction-market-768x419.jpg "[Whale Watch] $7K NO on Jon Ossoff 2028 Presidential Market at 96c (11:34:18 AM ET)")
![Prediction market illustration for [Whale Watch] $5K YES on S&P 500 "6,410 or above" on Mar 31 at 97c (10:59:47 AM ET)](https://news2bet.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/sp500-6410-kalshi-prediction-market-yes-768x419.jpg "[Whale Watch] $5K YES on S&P 500 \"6,410 or above\" on Mar 31 at 97c (10:59:47 AM ET)")
![Prediction market illustration for [Whale Watch] $5K YES on Will the Citrini Scenario Happen? at 34c (10:49:07 AM ET)](https://news2bet.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/citrini-scenario-kalshi-prediction-market-whale-768x419.jpg "[Whale Watch] $5K YES on Will the Citrini Scenario Happen? at 34c (10:49:07 AM ET)")