[Whale Watch] $12K NO on Bitcoin Above $75,249.99 on Mar 16, 2026 at 83c (8:59:59 PM ET)

The Trade

Someone just bet $12,352 that Bitcoin will NOT be above $75,249.99 on March 16, 2026 at 9pm EDT. The trade was 14,882 contracts at 83 cents per share, meaning the market implied roughly an 83% chance Bitcoin stays below that threshold. Three large NO trades hit within seconds, totaling over $15K combined.

📈 Predict it here on Kalshi →

The Price Impact

The YES price had already moved hard before this trade, running from 3 cents to 17 cents on the day. This whale sold YES at 17 cents, pushing back against that run, and the market settled with a bid of 2 cents and ask of 3 cents after the flood of NO volume.

What This Market Is

Kalshi is asking a single question: will Bitcoin’s price exceed $75,249.99 at exactly 9pm EDT on March 16, 2026? YES pays if it does, NO pays if it doesn’t.

The Bottom Line

A whale locked in $12K saying Bitcoin closes below $75,250 tonight, right at the deadline.

This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.

---

Related Articles

• Trump Iran Visit Odds Near Zero on Kalshi Amid Active War
• [Whale Watch] $5K NO on S&P 500 Price Above $6,699.99 on March 16, 2026 at 3:54:53 PM ET
• [Whale Watch] $13K YES on Bitcoin Price Above $72,999.99 on Mar 16, 2026 at 96.0c (11:45:34 PM ET)