Will Arizona State Beat Baylor in the Big 12 Tournament? Kalshi Odds Hit 67c

THE MOVE

Arizona State has surged to 67 cents on Kalshi’s Baylor vs. Arizona State Big 12 Tournament market, up a massive 28 cents from 39 cents earlier in the day. The corresponding Baylor contract has collapsed from 63 cents to 35 cents over the same period. As of 1:00 PM ET, nearly $1 million in volume has traded across both sides of this market, with 5,251 trades on the ASU contract alone.

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THE DATA

YES pressure on ASU is overwhelming, with 947,112 YES contracts traded against just 107,946 NO — an 89.8% to 10.2% imbalance. The early flow tells the story: two large sweeps at 11:54 AM ET hit 42,072 contracts at 33 cents, followed by another 26,600-contract sweep at 32 cents just before 12:30 PM ET, suggesting sharp money was loading up on ASU well before the price climbed. A notable 14,706-contract NO sweep at 61 cents around 12:53 PM ET represents the only significant pushback, but it barely dented the momentum.

THE CONTEXT

The Sun Devils and Bears are meeting in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament at T-Mobile Center, with tip-off at 12:30 PM ET. Both teams entered at 16-15, making this a closely matched pairing on paper — but the market has decisively moved away from that narrative. Bettors should watch the live score closely, as any shift in game flow could trigger sharp price reversals on both contracts.