Prediction Market Odds Shift as OpenAI Ads Top $100M Pace

Anthropic Favored to IPO First as Kalshi Bettors Give It ~67% Odds Over OpenAI’s ~33%

– Anthropic is considering an IPO as soon as October 2026, according to The Economic Times, while OpenAI’s CFO says the company “must prepare for public company status.”

– Kalshi’s AI IPO race contract prices Anthropic at roughly 67% to go public first, well ahead of OpenAI at about 34%.

– Watch for an Anthropic S-1 filing as early as this fall, which would likely send the contract surging toward settlement.

Predict it here on Kalshi

What Happened

What appears to be a race to become the first major AI lab to go public seems to be heating up on two fronts, suggesting intensifying competitive pressure across the industry. The Economic Times reports that Anthropic, maker of Claude, is considering an IPO as soon as October 2026. Meanwhile, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated the company “must prepare for public company status.” She called its latest funding round a step that “mitigates risks” on the path to going public. OpenAI just closed an approximately $10 billion round valuing the company at $730 billion. MGX, Coatue Management, and Thrive Capital were among the investors. Its advertising pilot blew past $100 million in annualized recurring revenue less than two months after launching.

The Market

KXOAIANTH-40-ANTH is trading around 67 cents, giving Anthropic roughly a 67% chance of beating OpenAI to the public markets before 2040. The contract resolves for whichever company first has an IPO officially confirmed via S-1 effectiveness, pricing, or ticker assignment. KXOAIANTH-40-OAI is trading around 34 cents. That implies traders see OpenAI as a clear underdog in this race despite its larger valuation and more explicit IPO language from its CFO.

What to Watch

The specific catalyst is October 2026, the earliest reported window for an Anthropic IPO filing. An S-1 submission from either company would almost certainly push its corresponding contract sharply toward 100 cents. Conversely, if Anthropic delays past October without filing, expect KXOAIANTH-40-ANTH to pull back and KXOAIANTH-40-OAI to narrow the gap.

Related Markets

• When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? — 58¢ (~58% chance)
• When will Stripe officially announce an IPO? — 20¢ (~20% chance)
• Which Companies will officially announce an IPO this year? — 8¢ (~8% chance)
• Will Anthropic release Claude 5 this year? — 94¢ (~94% chance)
• Sam Altman replaced as OpenAI CEO this year? — 22¢ (~22% chance)
• When will any company achieve AGI? — 62¢ (~62% chance)
• Will OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028? — 76¢ (~76% chance)
• Will Elon win his case against OpenAI? — 43¢ (~43% chance)
• Will Ramp or Brex IPO first? — 2¢ (~2% chance)
• Will Deel or Rippling IPO first? — 73¢ (~73% chance)

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This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.

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