Anthropic Code Leak Shakes IPO Race — Kalshi Market Holds

– Anthropic suffered two major data leaks in five days, exposing 512,000 lines of Claude Code source code and unreleased model names.

– Kalshi’s “Anthropic IPOs before OpenAI” contract trades around 63 cents, implying roughly 63% odds Anthropic goes public first.

– Watch for Anthropic’s response to Gartner criticism and any SEC filing signals from either company in coming months.

Predict it here on Kalshi

What Happened

Anthropic’s Claude Code source code leaked on March 31, exposing 512,000 lines across 1,906 files. It was the company’s second major data exposure in just five days. Gartner analysts called the repeated incidents “reliability and communication failures” and urged enterprise software leaders to demand vendors demonstrate operational maturity. The leaked code also revealed unreleased model codenames including Capybara, described as a new tier larger than Opus, and Numbat, a model still in pre-launch testing. Anthropic’s annualized revenue run rate sits at roughly $19 billion. Claude Code alone drives an estimated $2.5 billion in recurring revenue, about 80% from enterprise clients.

The Market

The secondary contract, KXOAIANTH-40-OAI, trades around 37 cents. The secondary contract, KXOAIANTH-40-OAI, trades around 45 cents. That combined pricing suggests the market sees a real race but gives Anthropic a clear edge despite the leaks.

What to Watch

OpenAI closed a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation in late March. It reportedly generates $2 billion in monthly revenue with 900 million weekly active users. If enterprise clients pull back from Claude Code following the Gartner criticism, this could indicate that Anthropic may face pressure to delay any IPO timeline, suggesting a potential reassessment of its public-market strategy. That could push the contract toward OpenAI’s side. Conversely, if Anthropic quickly demonstrates operational fixes and its unreleased models like Capybara prove competitive, the 63 cent price could climb further.

Related Markets

• When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? — 59¢
• When will Anthropic release Claude 5? — 28¢
• Will Anthropic release Claude 5 this year? — 94¢
• New York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit? — 58¢
• Sam Altman replaced as OpenAI CEO this year? — 17¢
• When will any company achieve AGI? — 63¢
• Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? — 54¢
• Best AI at the end of 2026? — 2¢
• AI capability growth this year? — 8¢

---

This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.

Related Reading

Anthropic Wins Injunction vs. DOD — Prediction Market Odds Shift

xAI Contract Leads Kalshi AI Race at 41¢ Bid as Rivals Go Dark

xAI’s 44¢ Kalshi Contract Prices a Bar the Market May Be Misjudging